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Company stress test
What happens to cash if business and lending conditions get worse? Pilot for Apple Inc. (AAPL) using figures for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. Everything is calculated in your browser; nothing is sent or saved.
Only Apple is supported. Other companies, and banks, insurers and REITs (whose cash works differently), are not supported yet; Apple's inputs are never used for another company. Scenario results do not change any status in the stock research screener. Not financial advice. Method notes are on Sources & methods.
Scenario result
Illustrative scenarios using dated Apple figures and stated assumptions. Actual funding sufficiency is not established.
Lowest modelled cash $39.5 bn in month 0. Below buffer: Not crossed within 24 months under these assumptions.
- Cash left at month 24
- $124.0 bn
- Baseline: $124.0 bn
- Lowest cash
- $39.5 bn
- Month 0
- First month below the $10.0 bn buffer
- Not crossed within 24 months under these assumptions
Cash path
Illustrative: dated Apple figures, stated assumptions, debt terms Unknown.
Scenario shown: Base assumptions
Learn this: profit versus cash
- First month below zero (unmet funding gap)
- Not crossed within 24 months under these assumptions
- Debt payment that cannot be covered
- None within 24 months under these assumptions
- Largest drag versus baseline
- None (no driver lowers cash versus baseline)
- Assumption-driven. Debt terms Unknown.
Key scenario settings
- Preset
- Base assumptions
- Horizon
- 24 months
- Sales change
- 0%
- Margin squeeze
- 0 pp
- Cash cost increase
- 0%
- Extra collection / inventory days
- 0 / 0
- Faster supplier payment
- 0 days
- Short / long rate change
- 0 / 0 pp
- Extra spread
- 0 pp
- Refinanced
- 100%
- Buybacks / dividends
- continue / continue
- Starting cash / buffer
- $39,544 m / $10,000 m
Debt tranches, coupons and maturity months are assumed proxies. Actual principal schedule, hedges, credit availability, covenants and solvency are Unknown.
Scenario settings
Business shocks
Applied to every month from month 1 against the flat reference month.
An extra cost equal to this share of stressed sales. It is added on top of the cost increase below, so avoid counting one shock twice.
Raises both variable and fixed cash operating payments.
Lending conditions
Changes floating debt (at its reset), commercial paper replacement, credit line draws and the yield on cash. No tranche is set as floating, so existing debt interest does not move. Floating exposure 0 is an assumption, not verified absence.
Changes the rate on replacement term debt only. Existing fixed coupons stay unchanged until maturity.
Added to the rate on replacement debt and any credit line draw.
An assumption. No lender has committed to refinance anything in this model. Replacement debt is new debt that must be repaid later.
Working capital and investment
Ties up cash once when the target balance rises; it is not charged again every month.
Payables cannot fall below zero.
Simplification: balances jump to their new targets in month 1. Vendor non-trade receivables ($27,509 m) are not treated as customer receivables and are not modelled.
Currency
Default 0 is an assumption; Apple's actual net exposure is Unknown. Positive means net receipts in foreign currency. Not all foreign sales are exposed.
The currency slider has no effect right now because the exposure above is 0. Enter an exposure you can support with evidence to see an effect.
Company responses
Baseline buybacks $6,899 m a month (nine-month average).
Baseline dividends $1,309 m a month.
Cuts only the part above the maintenance floor.
Default 50% is an assumption, not a disclosed maintenance need.
Default 0. Actual committed credit availability is Unknown in this pilot.
Draws only happen if this is ticked and a limit is entered. Draws top cash back up to the buffer and stop at the limit.
Starting position and operating anchor
Cash and cash equivalents at June 27, 2026. Marketable securities are not added automatically.
Default 0. The cash-flow statement shows no separate restricted balance, but legal accessibility is not fully established.
Your chosen minimum. It is not a lender covenant.
119,923 / 9: nine-month operating cash before working-capital movements. Contains taxes and net interest. Flat monthly use is a model assumption, not guidance.
6,799 / 9.
No interest is earned on negative cash.
Default 247.6675: seeded proxy coupons on the proxy balances, (1,997 x 4.5% + 82,347 x 3.5%) / 12. Not a disclosed interest figure. Used only to back out reference operating payments; it stays fixed when you change debt in the scenario, so higher coupons lower cash.
Default 98.86: 39,544 x 3% / 12. Not a disclosed figure. Stays fixed when you change starting cash or yield. Changing the anchor above does change reference operating payments.
Optional seasonal weights (default flat: no seasonal forecast)
Month 1 is July 2026. Weights are rescaled to average 1. Leaving them all at 1 means no seasonal pattern is assumed.
Debt tranches (assumed timing)
ASSUMED timing and proxy amounts. Principal values are carrying balances from the 10-Q used as illustrative proxies; coupons and maturity months are unverified. Actual principal, coupons, reset dates, hedge terms, credit availability and covenants are Unknown. Floating exposure of 0 is an assumption. Replacement debt: 24-month tenor at 4% base rate + 1% spread + rate change + extra spread (commercial paper uses the short rate).
Interest-rate derivatives notional ($10,625 m) and debt in fair-value hedges (about $10,400 m) do not prove actual floating exposure and are not imported as floating debt.
What changed the result
Total cash effect over 24 months, scenario minus baseline, by driver. The rows add up exactly to the end-cash difference. Rows include interaction effects (for example, lower cash earns less interest), so they are not one-at-a-time effects.
| Driver | Scenario minus baseline |
|---|---|
| Sales receipts | $0 m |
| Operating costs and margin | $0 m |
| Currency | $0 m |
| Cash taxes | $0 m |
| Working capital | $0 m |
| Interest paid and earned | $0 m |
| Capital investment | $0 m |
| Dividends and buybacks | $0 m |
| Award withholding and other uses | $0 m |
| Debt repayment and refinancing | $0 m |
| Asset sale and equity raise | $0 m |
| End-cash difference | $0 m |
Debt payments timeline
Month 3: Commercial paper (proxy)
Principal $1,997 m; refinanced $1,997 m; paid from cash $0 m
Interest paid that month (all debt) $248 m · cash at month end $49.8 bn
Assumptionfixedno hedge setAssumed date
Month 12: Current term notes (proxy)
Principal $11,007 m; refinanced $11,007 m; paid from cash $0 m
Interest paid that month (all debt) $248 m · cash at month end $81.2 bn
Assumptionfixedno hedge setAssumed date
Two-factor map
Sales change against extra lender spread, using the same engine and all your other settings. Choosing a cell changes only those two settings.
| Sales / spread | +0 pp | +2 pp | +4 pp |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | |||
| -20% | |||
| -40% |
Light: buffer of $10.0 bn not crossed. Cobalt: below buffer. Black: below zero. Each cell also states the figures in text.
Liquidity is not solvency
Cash model (this tool)
Lowest modelled usable cash $39.5 bn in month 0, under stated assumptions.
Lender covenant result: Unknown. No actual covenant definition or threshold has been supplied.
Book balance sheet at June 27, 2026 Fact
- Total assets
- $383,266 m
- Total liabilities
- $275,746 m
- Book equity
- $107,520 m
Actual solvency: Unknown. Book equity is an accounting figure, assets are not automatically spendable cash, and debt principal, coupons, maturities, hedge terms, credit availability and covenants are not verified here.
Facts, derived values and assumptions
Source: Apple Inc. Form 10-Q, third quarter of fiscal 2026 (quarter ended June 27, 2026). Source checked October 2, 2026; filing period June 27, 2026. Historical reported facts, not forecasts. USD millions.
Reported facts used (with page references)
| Item | $m | Where |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 39,544 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Closing cash incl. restricted (cash-flow statement) | 39,544 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Current marketable securities | 22,855 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Non-current marketable securities | 84,118 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Trade accounts receivable | 31,398 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Inventories | 11,092 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Vendor non-trade receivables (not treated as trade receivables) | 27,509 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Accounts payable | 64,525 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Current term debt, carrying amount | 11,007 | Balance sheet p. 3; debt note 6, p. 10 |
| Non-current term debt, carrying amount | 71,340 | Balance sheet p. 3; debt note 6, p. 10 |
| Commercial paper, carrying amount | 1,997 | Balance sheet p. 3; debt note 6, p. 10 |
| Total assets | 383,266 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Total liabilities | 275,746 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Shareholders' equity (book) | 107,520 | Balance sheet, p. 3 |
| Net sales, nine months | 364,357 | Statements of operations, p. 1 |
| Cost of sales, nine months | 185,575 | Statements of operations, p. 1 |
| Operating expenses, nine months | 56,350 | Statements of operations, p. 1 |
| Operating income, nine months | 122,432 | Statements of operations, p. 1 |
| Cash from operations, nine months | 116,996 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Capital expenditure, nine months | 6,799 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Cash income taxes paid, nine months | 26,555 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Dividends paid, nine months | 11,778 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Share repurchases, nine months | 62,094 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Taxes paid on net share settlement of equity awards, nine months | 6,462 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Other financing outflow, nine months | 184 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Other investing outflow, nine months | 1,780 | Cash flows, p. 5 |
| Interest-rate derivatives notional (not imported as floating debt) | 10,625 | Financial instruments note 4, pp. 7-9 |
Derived values and how they are calculated
- Working-capital and other asset/liability movements, nine months: 8,316 + 5,671 - 5,461 - 16,266 - 5,203 + 10,016 = -2,927.
- Operating cash before those movements: 116,996 - (-2,927) = 119,923; monthly anchor $13,325 m. Removes historical working-capital swings instead of assuming they repeat. Still contains cash taxes and net interest.
- Reference monthly sales 364,357 / 9 and cash taxes 26,555 / 9. Reference cash operating payments are backed out so month 1 at zero shocks reproduces the anchor. These receipts and payments are modelled proxies, not reported direct cash flows. Depreciation and share compensation are not deducted again.
- Monthly averages of capital investment, dividends, buybacks, award withholding taxes, other financing and other investing outflows are each the nine-month total divided by 9.
- No marketable securities purchases, sales or maturities are repeated by default.
Model assumptions
- Flat monthly base: no seasonal forecast unless you enter weights. Not company guidance.
- Cash taxes held at the reference level; no automatic refunds.
- Debt tranches, coupons and maturity months are illustrative proxies; floating exposure 0 is assumed, not verified.
- Debt flows at month end; new borrowing accrues from the next month; credit line draws are not repaid within the horizon.
- Working-capital targets adjust instantly; only changes in balances move cash.
- No cash floor: negative cash is an unmet funding gap, not an approved overdraft.
- No bankruptcy date, probability or credit rating is produced.
Monthly cash bridge (table)
| Month | Start | Receipts | Op. payments | Taxes | Net interest | Working cap. | Capex | Payouts | Other | Debt net | Asset/equity | End | Baseline end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39544 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39544 | 39544 |
| 1 | 39544 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -149 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 42969 | 42969 |
| 2 | 42969 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -140 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 46403 | 46403 |
| 3 | 46403 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -132 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 49845 | 49845 |
| 4 | 49845 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -124 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 53295 | 53295 |
| 5 | 53295 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -115 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 56754 | 56754 |
| 6 | 56754 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -107 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 60221 | 60221 |
| 7 | 60221 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -98 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 63697 | 63697 |
| 8 | 63697 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -89 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 67182 | 67182 |
| 9 | 67182 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -81 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 70675 | 70675 |
| 10 | 70675 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -72 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 74177 | 74177 |
| 11 | 74177 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -63 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 77688 | 77688 |
| 12 | 77688 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -54 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 81208 | 81208 |
| 13 | 81208 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -59 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 84722 | 84722 |
| 14 | 84722 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -50 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 88246 | 88246 |
| 15 | 88246 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -42 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 91778 | 91778 |
| 16 | 91778 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -33 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 95319 | 95319 |
| 17 | 95319 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -24 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 98869 | 98869 |
| 18 | 98869 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -15 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 102428 | 102428 |
| 19 | 102428 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | -6 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 105996 | 105996 |
| 20 | 105996 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | 3 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 109572 | 109572 |
| 21 | 109572 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | 12 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 113158 | 113158 |
| 22 | 113158 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | 21 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 116752 | 116752 |
| 23 | 116752 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | 30 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 120356 | 120356 |
| 24 | 120356 | 40484 | -24060 | -2951 | 39 | 0 | -755 | -8208 | -936 | 0 | 0 | 123969 | 123969 |
Illustrative scenarios using dated Apple figures and stated assumptions. Actual funding sufficiency is not established.